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When To Deal: Implications Of A Model For Optimal Timing

Gautam Aggarwal

Campbell Alliance, Senior Practice Executive, Raleigh, NC

Christopher Apolito

Campbell Alliance, Associate Practice Executive, Raleigh, NC

Ben Bonifant

Campbell Alliance, Senior VP and Practice Area Leader, Raleigh, NC

When licensing a pharmaceutical technology, there is no clear consensus on the best time to do the deal. With varying stakeholder interests and numerous factors to consider, the task of finding the optimal time to out-license a pharmaceutical technology is far from straightforward.

To gather opinions on what stage of development is perceived as best for completing a licensing transaction, Campbell Alliance conducted a deal-making intentions survey of nearly one hundred licensing professionals in the pharmaceutical industry. Study results demonstrated variations between what in- and out-licensors stated was the ideal timing for a deal and when the historical record demonstrated the deals were actually getting done.

To facilitate decision making on out-licensing, most organizations start with quantitative financial assessments; however, strict quantitative analysis is frequently insufficient to make a fully informed decision on whether and when to out-license. This article provides a quantitative model that objectively investigates optimal timing for out-licensing and further discusses qualitative factors that could shift the decision-making process away from one strictly driven by the numbers. The compelling findings and implications from the model are presented.

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